How the Lucky 15 is picked

Rating every runner

The model rates each runner from its past performances, adjusted for the class of race, the distance, the going, the draw and the weight carried. The ratings for the whole field are turned into each runner's chance of winning, adding up to 100%.

Win chance and place chance

A horse's place chance is its chance of finishing in the places the bookmakers pay on each-way, which depends on the number of runners and the type of race. It's worked out from the win chances of the whole field, so a horse in a race with one strong favourite can still have a good place chance.

Choosing the four

The Lucky 15 is the four runners with the best place chances at each-way prices (2/1 to 12/1), from four different races. Short-priced favourites are left out because they add little to a Lucky 15's returns; long shots are left out because they rarely place.

What a Lucky 15 is

Fifteen bets on four selections: four singles, six doubles, four trebles and a four-fold. A £1 Lucky 15 costs £15, or £30 each-way. Most days it returns less than it costs. The returns that make it worth following come on the occasional day when three or four land, which is why every day is published on the results page with exactly what it returned.

Each-way terms

We show standard each-way terms: 5 to 7 runners pay 2 places at 1/4 odds; 8 or more pay 3 places at 1/5; handicaps of 12 to 15 runners pay 3 places at 1/4, and of 16 or more pay 4 places at 1/4. Some bookmakers pay extra places on big races, which is worth checking before you bet.